The definition of a Swing Count (not to be confused with Count Basie's swing count)
I was going through some charts last night and came across the Natural Gas Weekly Continuation chart. I normally do not use a continuation chart but this one is interesting.
You have heard me using the terminology ?swing count? in describing a 3 wave move. In simple terms a swing count is simply C = A in magnitude in defining a target for C. I hope to clarify it with this chart.
I went back to December 2005 and marked up the significant highs and lows to present. This numbers are shown on the chart in blue. Note the points marked A, B and C. Those 3 points mark the end of waves A, B and C respectively.
The magnitude of wave A is 15.78 – 4.593 or 11.187. Since a swing count is C = A, the expected length of wave C also expected to be 11.187 (or thereabouts). Subracting 11.187 from (B) 13.694 yields a ?swing count target? of 2.507. You can see that the actual lows (up to this point) are pretty close to that target, exceeding it marginally. At the most recent low, prices are resting on a Gann line. How much more can we squeeze out of this market?
Natural Gas – Weekly continuation
JbG
