Molte news importanti sono in arrivo e già nelle prossime ore avremo le idee più chiare in primis dalla Fed, questa sera, ed a seguire dal referendum in Scozia (ma davvero credete che uno scozzese possa abbracciare l'Euro in questo contesto socio-economico?mah!), tuttavia stiamo notando che molte case di investimento stanno riconsigliando l'equity come asset class da sovrappesare da qui a fine anno.
L'ultimo studio interessante che abbiamo letto per voi è quello di Credit Suisse che vi segnaliamo in sintesi qui di seguito:
GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY – Raising equity targets
We raise our year-end target to 2,050 from 2,020 for the S&P 500 (and modestly raise our Eurostoxx target to 3,450 from 3,400, and Nikkei target to 17,000 from 16,500). We introduce a mid-2015 target of 2,200 for the S&P 500, but an end 2015 target of 2,100: we see a high probability of a second half correction as the Fed raise rates and US profit margins peak against a backdrop of full employment. We staylevated on record). Even if bond yields follow our model higher, the ERP is still 1% too high. Our P/E model suggests that a US PE of 17×-18x is realistic compared with the current multiple of 15.7x;
Excess liquidity: is consistent with a 10% re-rating of global equities. G4 central bank balance sheet are set to expand c.12% in 2015 (cf 10% in 14);
Earnings revisions are close to three-year highs. If our economic forecasts are correct, then revenue estimates are c.1.5% too low in 2015, (underpinning 2015 EPS growth of 16% for Europe and 8% for the US);
Funds flow: buybacks have slowed, but corporate net buying is set to remain above average levels (we estimate c.$2.2trn of firepower in Europe and the US). Sharpe ratios suggest household and pension weightings should be higher;
Tactical indicators: Risk appetite is only 0.2std above average with ISM implying a higher reading. Credit, price momentum and market breadth remain supportive; only the bull/bear ratio for financial advisers is extended;
Fed: critically, markets correct after but not before the first Fed rate hike.
What are the risks? (i) near term, the elevated bull/bear ratio is consistent with a flat market (over 2-4 weeks); (ii) the Fed: we see the risk of a Fed hike in Q2 2015, a little earlier than expected by both the market and our economists, but a change of language could see a 2% to 4% sell-off; (iii) China (but deposit growth, fiscal flexibility and a short term desire to support growth are all better than we had thought); and (iv) European politics. We continue to believe that US equities will underperform.
Credit Suisse a parte, ci pare che l'equity, nello specifico europeo, abbia trovato un interessante supporto di breve-medio periodo e quindi crediamo che un Buy sul nostro FtseMib, tramite per esempio l'Etf con isin FR0010010827, possa avere un ottimo rapporto rischio/rendimento con una ottica temporale di uno-due mesi.
